Active
volcanoes are not evenly distributed over the surface of the Earth
(Fig. 1). Instead, they are concentrated in specific areas,
(Fig. 2) including:
a) divergent plate margins (crustal spreading centres), b) convergent
plate margins (subduction zones), c) sites of mantle plumes or hot
spots.
Volcanoes
at divergent plate margins (e.g. Iceland) and hot spots (e.g. Hawaii)
mostly erupt oceanic basaltic type magmas (with < 53% SiO2).
Most of the energy released during these eruptions is as heat, with
only small amounts of kinetic energy release through lava flows,
lava-fountaining and minor explosions.
Convergent
margin volcanoes generally release far more explosive kinetic energy.
Convergent margin volcanoes include those at sites of continental-oceanic
crust collision (e.g. the Taupo Volcanic Zone volcanoes, the Andes),
sites of oceanic-oceanic crust collision (e.g. the Tonga-Kermadec
Island arc, the Aleutians), and also sites of continental-continental
crust collisions (e.g. Italy). Convergent margin volcanoes generally
erupt andesitic magmas (53-63% SiO2), but can also erupt
more silicic magmas including dacite and rhyolite (> 63% SiO2).
With
increasing silica (SiO2) content, magma viscosity is
higher, trapping volcanic gases within the magma. This causes increased
explosivity as gas pressure builds up and then tries to escape the
magma. Hence there is a first-order relationship between the plate
tectonic location of volcanoes and their explosivity. However, other
external factors can dramatically affect explosivity, such as interaction
of magma with ground or surface water, e.g. large explosions occurred
in Surtsey (Iceland) in 1963 when the normally non-explosive basaltic
magma encountered ocean water.
Volcanic
eruption types vary considerably and depend on many factors including:
magma composition, vent size and shape (i.e. confined pipes versus
elongate fissures), magma volume, vent location (i.e. under water
or on top of a mountain), external water and many other elements.
Consequently, classification of eruption types is difficult, and
most schemes contain problems. In the scheme presented here (Table
1), eruptions are categorised into 10 types in order of increasing
hazard potential. These types range from non-explosive eruptions
with slow-moving products that affect small areas, to huge, explosive
eruptions with rapidly moving products affecting large areas.
One
limitation of this scheme is that most eruption types are named
after volcanoes that show a particular style of behaviour, e.g.
Strombolian (Stromboli in Italy), Surtseyan (Surtsey in Iceland).
However, these volcanoes can produce periods of quite different
styles of activity than what is characteristic of their respective
eruptive types. In addition, an eruption may change as it progresses
and go through phases of different eruption types, e.g. the 1883
eruption of Krakatau, changed from Vulcanian type activity to powerful
Plinian and Peléean activity as it reached its climactic phase.
Eruption character may also vary from place to place on a volcano,
e.g. in 1906 on Vesuvio, the main vent ejected huge quantities of
pumice and tephra, whilst effusive emission of lava occurred from
several other vents.
paroxysmal
ejection and wide dispersal of tephra (including pumice),
sometimes associated with caldera collapse
Soufrière,
St, Vincent, 1902
Vesuvio, AD 79
Pinatubo, 1991
Peléean
collapse
of a Plinian or Vulcanian eruption column or dome or cone
collapse to produce nuées ardentes or glowing avalanches
(pyroclastic flows)
Mt.
Pelée, Martinique, 1902
Bandaian
collapse
of part of volcanic edifice producing massive landslide or
avalanche
Bandai,
Japan, 1888
Mt. St. Helens, 1980
Katmaian
voluminous
production of ignimbrites
Katmai-Novarupta,
Alaska, 1912
Of
the 5564 eruptions recorded up to 1981, 24% involved lava flows,
c. 9% were of phreatomagmatic type, 5% produced pyroclastic flows,
c. 5.5% generated mudflows (lahars) and 6% were submarine eruptions.
Over 70% of the recorded eruptions involved normal explosive
activity, involving activity of Strombolian, Vulcanian or Plinian
type.
Activity of volcanoes
Volcanoes
are often classified as either being active, dormant or extinct.
However, this classification is often misleading because it is based
on activity (or absence of it) in the known historic record. The
length of reliable historic records vary from >2000 years in
some places to <100 years in other places in the world. However,
the recurrence interval of eruptions from some volcanoes can be
much longer than any of the historic records. Also the early portion
of many historic records are unreliable. In addition, this classification
does not work for volcanoes that are monogenetic, (i.e. they erupt
only once), e.g. Auckland is built over c. 50 monogenetic volcanoes,
none of which are ever likely to erupt again (although a future
eruption from the Auckland volcanic field is probable). Many "extinct"
volcanoes have been known to erupt; one estimate is that on average
one "extinct" volcano erupts every 5 years.
An
improved terminology is that of alive and dead
volcanoes, based on the probability that they will or will not erupt
again. This probability is based upon the geologic and historic
record of the volcano and is expressed as the ratio between the
time since the last eruption and the length of the longest repose
period at that volcano. The smaller the ratio - the greater the
probability of a future eruption.
The
repose interval between eruptions from the known historic record
(prior to 1981) varies considerably between volcanoes (Fig. 3A).
Although the median repose is 5 years, for the 25 most violent eruptions,
the median repose period is 865 years. Hence it appears that, as
eruption explosivity increases, the repose period between eruptions
is longer.
In
the Holocene (last 10 000 years) 5564 eruptions are known to have
occurred from 1343 volcanoes, and 529 of these occurred in the historic
period. Hence, it is likely that many more of the worlds c.
10 000 volcanoes are likely to become active in the
future.
The
duration of volcanic eruptions is also highly variable (Fig.
3B). Of the known 2139 eruptions (prior to 1981) the median
duration is about 60 days. However, an eruption can comprise many
different events over a long period of time, e.g. Sakurajima (Japan),
has been in continuous eruption since 1955, with explosions occurring
on most days, and the current eruption of Stromboli began before
450 B.C.
It
is the climactic phase of eruptions which is the most important
from a hazards perspective, and in most cases these are of relatively
short duration (e.g. Table 2). The Mt. St. Helens eruption began
on March 17, 1980, and continued through 1983, however many peoples
perceptions of this event were that each of the most violent outbursts
was a separate eruption. Throughout this long eruption time, the
most violent phase lasted only 9 hours, on May 18.
Volcanoes
on convergent plate margins erupt only 10-13% of the magma reaching
the earths surface annually. However, these volcanoes provide
84% of know eruptions, and of importance from a hazards perspective,
is that they also provide 88% of the eruptions with fatalities.
Table
2. Duration of climatic eruptive phases, adapted from Blong
(1984).
Volcano
Year
(A.D.)
Duration
Vesuvio
79
c.
24 hours
Fogo
1563
c.
2 days
Asama
1783
4
days
Tambora
1815
c.
2 days
Cosiguina
1835
c.
3 days
Krakatau
1883
36-45
hours
Santa
Maria
1902
c.
18 hours
Katmai-Novarupta
1912
<20
hours
Hekla
1947
1
hour
Mt.
St. Helens
1980
9
hours
The
eruption frequency-duration for each convergent margin volcano belt
has been assessed by calculating the number of years each volcano
in a belt has been active since 1880, then totalling these and dividing
by the length of the belt. This indicates that the Halmahera (Indonesia),
Calabria (Italy) and New Zealand belts have been the most active
(Fig. 4). However, these areas may not be those of greatest
volcanic hazard.
There
are several different parameters to quantify the size of a volcanic
eruption. These include: Magnitude - the total volume of erupted
material Intensity - the volumetric (or mass) discharge rate of
material from the vent Dispersive power - the area over which eruptive
products are distributed Explosive violence Destructive potential.
One
of the more commonly used methods to measure an eruptions
size is to estimate the total thermal energy released, based on
a calculation using the total volume of ejected material. In a moderately
large eruption (Table 3), 1015-1018 joules
of energy are released (compare to a 1 kilotonne atomic bomb which
releases about 4 x 1012 J). However, this measure does
not always provide a good correlation with the degree of volcanic
hazard from an eruption. A good example of this is that the violently
explosive and extremely deadly eruption of Krakatoa in 1883 released
only the same amount of energy as quiet, non-explosive eruptions
of Mauna Loa in Hawaii in 1859 and 1950 (Table 3).
Table
3. Eruption magnitudes of well known historic eruptions of the
world, adapted from Blong (1984).
Volcano
Location
Year
Eruption
type
Energy
released (J)
Volcanic
explosivity index (VEI)
Santorini
Aegean
Sea
1500
B.C.
Plinian-Katmaian
1.0
´ 1020
6
Laki
Iceland
1783
Icelandic
8.6
´ 1019
4
Tambora
Indonesia
1815
Plinian-Katmaian
8.4
´ 1019
7
Krakatau
Indonesia
1883
Plinian-Katmaian
1.0
´ 1018
6
Vesuvio
Italy
1906
Plinian
1.7
´ 1017
3
Katmai-Novarupta
Alaska
1912
Katmaian
2.0
´ 1019
6
Sakurajima
Japan
1914
Plinian-Peléean
4.6
´ 1018
4
Mauna
Loa
Hawaii
1950
Hawaiian
1.4
´ 1018
0
Oshima
Japan
1950-51
Strombolian
9.4
´ 1016
2
Kilauea
Hawaii
1952
Hawaiian
1.8
´ 1017
0
Bezymianny
Kamchatka
1955-56
Bandaian
2.2
´ 1018
5
Capelinhos
Azores
1957
Surtseyan-Strombolian
4.0
´ 1017
2
Agung
Bali
1963
Vulcanian
4.5
´ 1017
4
Surtsey
Iceland
1963
Surtseyan-Strombolian
1.9
´ 1017
3
Taal
Philippines
1965
Surtseyan
1.0
´ 1016
4
Arenal
Costa
Rica
1968
Vulcanian
1.0
´ 1015
3
Mt.
St. Helens
USA
1980
Bandaian-Plinian
5.0
´ 1016
5
The
most appropriate measure of an eruption size for volcanic hazards
is the volcanic explosivity index (VEI). This index combines the
total volume of erupted products, the eruption column height, the
duration of the main eruptive phase and several descriptive terms.
The VEI scale ranges from 1-8 in order of increasing explosivity
(e.g. Table 3). The historic eruption of greatest VEI was that of
Tambora (Indonesia) with a value of 7, no historic eruptions with
a VEI of 8 have occurred. Over half the volcanoes for which information
exists have had large eruptions of VEI 3 or greater.
Volcanic hazards overview
Convergent
margin volcanoes are in general characterised by more
explosive eruptions than other volcanoes, although they do no
erupt more frequently or for longer periods. Hence the typical convergent
margin volcano eruption would generally display one or more of the
eruption types in the lower half of Table 1. Conversely, volcanoes
at divergent margins or hot spots generally display the eruption
types in the upper half of Table 1. This produces large differences
in hazard potential and type.
The
relationship between the type of eruption, the type of hazard, relative
frequency of damage, and range at which damage occurs is summarised
in Table 4. In this classification, nine types of volcanic hazards
are recognised.
Table
4. Summary of volcanic hazards, adapted from Blong (1984).
Volcanic
hazard
Frequency
Hazard
level since
Hazard
level since
Frequency
of damage and death
at distance from source (km)
%
1600
AD
1900
AD
<
10
10-30
30-100
100-500
500-1000
>
1000
Lava
flows
24
<1
<1
F
C
VR
Ballistic
projectiles
c.
60
<<1
<<1
C
Tephra
falls
c.
60
4
1
VF
F
F
C
R
Pyroclastic
flows and debris avalanches
5
10
10
A
F
R
VR
Lahars
and jökulhlaups
6
4+
1.5
F
F
R
VR
Seismic
activity and ground deformation
c.
50
<<1
<<1
C
C
VR
Tsunami
<1
10
<<1
A
F
C
R
VR
Atmospheric
effects
c.
60
<<1
<<1
C
C
R
VR
VR
Acid
rains and gases
c.
40
<<1
<<1
F
F
R
R
VR
VR
Hazard
level indicates the relative frequency of deaths if the specific
type of activity occurs A = always, VF = very frequent, F =
frequent, C = common, R = rare, VR = very rare.
Tephra
falls, ballistic projectiles, atmospheric
effects, earthquakes, and acid rains and gases appear to be
the most frequently occurring volcanic hazards, although the severity
of these hazards varies considerably. In historical examples it
can be difficult to attribute fatalities to specific types of hazard.
However, from the known data since 1600 AD, pyroclastic flows and
tsunamis have been the most hazardous volcanic events. Since 1900
AD, volcanically-generated tsunamis were not so deadly, but pyroclastic
flows remained as the greatest hazard. Lahars and tephra fall are
also among the most hazardous of events with the other types of
hazard much less important. The limitation of these reviews is however
that the results are heavily biased by a few eruptions that caused
a large number of fatalities.