Hazard Forecasting & Prediction

Forecasting

Hazard forecasting is "the anticipation of an event, of a given magnitude and type, occurring in the future". A forecast is based on the past record of events, with historic models used to project the likelihood of similar events occurring in the future. Forecasting is a very general statement of what is likely to happen in the future, based on past trends.

Prediction

The term forecasting is often used incorrectly in place of "prediction". Prediction involves the interpretation of physical precursors in order to identify when a specific disaster impact will occur. Prediction then, is a precise statement of the time, place, nature, and size of impending activity, and covers a shorter time period. Prediction requires geophysical monitoring or surveillance of natural physical events to identify precursory phenomena. Scientists generally consider volcanic eruptions and earthquakes to be "predictable" at the current level of knowledge.

Accurate predictions may provide us with enough warning time to undertake the evacuation of citizens and, if need be, to begin stockpiling extra resources (food, water, temporary shelter) outside of the anticipated ‘danger areas’ to help in the post-disaster relief effort.

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