Hazard
Forecasting & Prediction
Forecasting
Hazard
forecasting is "the anticipation of an event, of a given magnitude
and type, occurring in the future". A forecast is based on the past
record of events, with historic models used to project the likelihood
of similar events occurring in the future. Forecasting is a very
general statement of what is likely to happen in the future,
based on past trends.
Prediction
The term forecasting is often used incorrectly
in place of "prediction". Prediction involves the interpretation
of physical precursors in order to identify when a specific disaster
impact will occur. Prediction then, is a precise statement
of the time, place, nature, and size of impending activity, and
covers a shorter time period. Prediction requires geophysical monitoring
or surveillance of natural physical events to identify precursory
phenomena. Scientists generally consider volcanic eruptions and
earthquakes to be "predictable" at the current level of knowledge.
Accurate predictions may provide us with enough
warning time to undertake the evacuation of citizens and, if need
be, to begin stockpiling extra resources (food, water, temporary
shelter) outside of the anticipated ‘danger areas’ to help in the
post-disaster relief effort.
back
to earthquake text
|